On April 13, 2026, Sir David Spiegelhalter visited our department. His lecture, titled \u201cThe Art of Uncertainty: Planning for a Future That Is Hard to Imagine,\u201d focused primarily on uncertainty. And uncertainty is a key statistical issue. Sir David\u2019s visit was particularly important for our project because he also addressed public health and spoke extensively about the proper communication of research results. He was also one of the authors involved in the (statistical) investigation of the Shipman case, an English doctor who was convicted of murdering more than a hundred of his elderly patients in the 1990s. Spiegelhalter and others demonstrated that a statistical analysis of death records would have revealed a suspicious increase in Shipman\u2019s patients\u2019 deaths before the alarm was raised (though, of course, after many murders had already taken place). Thanks in part to this work, mandatory monitoring of patient mortality was introduced in British hospitals. It took another tragedy and the conviction of a nurse, Lucy Letby for similar monitoring to be introduced in maternity wards. Of course, we\u2019re talking about criminal cases here, but ongoing monitoring of mortality rates in various units, institutions, or vulnerable groups can reveal critical gaps in the systems and, as a result, lead to the development of better public policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
13 kwietnia 2026 na naszym wydziale go\u015bci\u0142 sir David Spiegelhalter. Jego wyk\u0142ad pod tytu\u0142em: The Art of Uncertainty: planning for a future that is hard to imagine dotyczy\u0142 przede wszystkim niepewno\u015bci. A niepewno\u015b\u0107 to kluczowe zagadnienie statystyczne. Dla naszego projektu wizyta sir Davida by\u0142a o tyle wa\u017cna, \u017ce zajmowa\u0142 si\u0119 on tak\u017ce zdrowiem publicznym oraz du\u017co m\u00f3wi\u0142 o w\u0142a\u015bciwym komunikowaniu wynik\u00f3w bada\u0144. By\u0142 tak\u017ce jednym z autor\u00f3w zaanga\u017cowanych w (statystyczne) badanie sprawy Shipmana, angielskiego lekarza, kt\u00f3ry zosta\u0142 skazany za zamordowanie ponad stu swoich starszych pacjent\u00f3w w latach 1990-tych. Spiegelhalter i inni pokazali, \u017ce analiza statystyczna przypadk\u00f3w zgon\u00f3w wskaza\u0142aby podejrzany wzrost liczby \u015bmierci pacjent\u00f3w Shipmana zanim wszcz\u0119to alarm (cho\u0107 oczywi\u015bcie ju\u017c po wielu morderstwach). Mi\u0119dzy innymi dzi\u0119ki tej pracy wprowadzono w brytyjskich szpitalach obowi\u0105zkowy monitoring \u015bmiertelno\u015bci pacjent\u00f3w. Trzeba by\u0142o kolejnej tragedii i skazania piel\u0119gniarki, Lucy Letby, \u017ceby podobny monitoring wprowadzono na oddzia\u0142ach po\u0142o\u017cniczych. Mowa tu oczywi\u015bcie o sprawach kryminalnych, ale bie\u017c\u0105ce monitorowanie \u015bmiertelno\u015bci w r\u00f3\u017cnych jednostkach, instytucjach czy w grupach zagro\u017conych mo\u017ce wskaza\u0107 krytyczne luki w systemach i w konsekwencji projektowanie lepszych politycznych publicznych.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On April 13, 2026, Sir David Spiegelhalter visited our department. His lecture, titled \u201cThe Art of Uncertainty: Planning for a Future That Is Hard to Imagine,\u201d focused primarily on uncertainty. And uncertainty is a key statistical issue. Sir David\u2019s visit was particularly important for our project because he also addressed public health and spoke extensively … <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/homelessmortality.wgsr.uw.edu.pl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/7e236be5-7c9a-475c-ad7e-a753fe3fa302-1024x696.jpg\")